Two weeks after Iran’s missile attack on Israel, the Middle East is bracing for Tel Aviv’s promised response.
For his part, Benjamin Netanyahu has given assurances that he has no intention of attacking Iranian nuclear or oil facilities.
According to an article in the Washington Post, citing an official with knowledge of the matter, the Israeli strike on Iran will take place before the U.S. elections, because the lack of action could be interpreted by Iran as a sign of weakness.
“It will be one of a series of responses,” he said.
It All Started With the Biden-Netanyahu Call
When Biden and Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday, the prime minister said he planned to target military infrastructure in Iran, according to a U.S. official and an official familiar with the matter.
The Israeli prime minister’s office wrote in a statement that “we are listening to the views of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests.”
Retaliation will be calibrated to avoid the perception of “political interference in the American elections,” the official familiar with the matter said, signals Netanyahu’s understanding that the scope of the Israeli attack can reshape the presidential race.
What a strike on nuclear or oil facilities would do
An Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities could send energy prices soaring, analysts said. An attack on the country’s nuclear program could erase any remaining red lines governing Israel’s conflict with Tehran, leading to further escalation and risking a more direct U.S. military role.
Netanyahu’s stated plan to strike military installations instead, as Israel did after the April attack on Iran, was greeted with relief in Washington.
Netanyahu was in a “more moderate position” in this discussion than he had been previously, the U.S. official said, describing the call between the two leaders.
The apparent softening of the prime minister’s stance contributed to Biden’s decision to send the missile defense system to Israel.
Concerns in the Israeli camp
Within the Israeli defense establishment, there is concern that the strike will not be strong enough – or public enough – to deter Iran from another direct attack on Israel or from developing nuclear weapons.
“The Israeli military wants a strike on Iran’s military leadership because it won’t do any harm to the people and won’t cause a wider war in the region,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University who is in contact with senior members of the Israeli defense establishment. “But Netanyahu doesn’t think so.”
How the Netanyahu-US attack coordination was triggered
Netanyahu’s increased coordination with Washington comes in the wake of highly publicized attacks with little warning to Israel’s closest allies-including an attack against Iranian commandos near diplomatic facilities in Damascus, Syria and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh-in Tehran-that surprised and angered U.S. officials.
Netanyahu will continue to consult with U.S. officials about an imminent Israeli strike on Iran. But he will not wait for a green light from Washington, said an Israeli official close to the prime minister. “The person who will decide on the Israeli response to Iran will be Netanyahu,” he said.
Netanyahu under pressure
Prominent Israeli politicians continue to push for an immediate attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
“Anything less risks sacrificing the momentum Israel has gained from its wars in Lebanon and Gaza,” says Bennett.
Also Benett said that “Hezbollah and Hamas, are both severely wounded.” And he added “Israel has every right to attack. We have the capacity. We have a unique opportunity.”
