A new study reveals that life expectancy is not growing as quickly as it did in the last century across 10 wealthy countries.
In the 20th century, better healthcare and medicine led to what experts call a big jump in how long people lived.
On average, every 10 years, life expectancy at birth increased by about three years in some of the richest countries. At first, this rise was mainly due to fewer children dying. Later, fewer adults and older people were also living longer.
For example, in the United States in 1900, the average person was expected to live to 47-years-old. By 2000, this number had grown to nearly 77 years.
However, a recent report suggests that we won’t see the same large jump in life expectancy in this century.
People can only expect to gain an extra 2.5 years over the next 30 years
The paper, released on October 7 in the journal Nature Aging, predicts that people may only live about 2.5 years longer over the next 30 years.
The study’s authors suggest that the slowdown is likely because humans may be nearing the natural limit of how long they can live. As more people reach older ages, the main causes of death are tied to aging itself – the slow breakdown of cells and tissues over time.
While medical advances can prevent diseases like measles in children, there’s no way yet to halt the aging process as people reach 60, 70 and older.
Life Expectancy Growth Slows, Focus Turns to Healthier Aging
Recent research suggests that human life expectancy may be nearing a biological ceiling, with the rate of increase slowing significantly since the 1990s.
Despite advancements in medicine and public health, life… pic.twitter.com/3FWXs1dCni
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Jay Olshansky, the lead author of the study and a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago, compares fighting age-related diseases one by one to applying a “temporary survival Band-Aid.”
Efforts to find treatments or cures for conditions like Alzheimer’s or cancer may help people live longer. However, Olshansky points out that these approaches only allow people to reach older ages without addressing the core problem: aging itself.
Life expectancy trends from 1990 to 2019
In their study, Olshansky and his team examined life expectancy trends from 1990 to 2019. They analyzed data from nine regions known for having the longest-living populations –Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Hong Kong.
The U.S. was also included, as some experts had predicted significant increases in life expectancy there. The researchers used this data to look back at past trends and make predictions about how life expectancy might change throughout the 21st century.
The team discovered that the rise in life expectancy slowed down in all 10 countries, especially after 2010. The chance of reaching 100 years is quite low for people born today – about 5.1% for females and 1.8% for males.
Among children born in 2019, those in Hong Kong have the best odds of living to 100, with females having a 12.8% chance and males a 4.4% chance.
