The 2024 United States presidential election is right around the corner, and the latest polls show Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of former President Trump in six battleground states that are crucial in the election. The same poll shows the candidates are tied in Georgia.
The survey published by Bloomberg on September 26th found that Vice President Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
These polls show Harris has a 7-point lead over Trump in Nevada, a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania, and a 3-point advantage in Arizona and Michigan.
Why are these states so significant for the upcoming US election?
There are two reasons why these six battleground states are so crucial to this year’s election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. First of all, all six states are swing states with diverse electorates.
Not a single one of these six battleground states is solidly Republican or Democrat, which is why they are referred to as “swing states.” Their electorate is also extremely diverse, with many of these states having diverse populations of urban, suburban, and rural voters, also composed of diverse ethnic groups.
For instance, Arizona has a growing Latino population which makes it a crucial target for both Democrats and Republicans, especially on subjects such as immigration. Other states, such as North Carolina, have a considerable mix of voters that reside in rural areas, suburban areas, and urban areas. This means that the needs of these communities are also quite diverse.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are much more homogenous in terms of population, given that Pennsylvania is part of the “Rust Belt” of the country and voters are extremely concerned about manufacturing jobs.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, has been a historical battleground state for both parties, but they too have a strong labor union presence.
These battleground states have a crucial amount of electoral votes in the Harris vs Trump race
The second reason why these swing states are so important for both Vice President Harris and former President Trump is the number of electoral votes each state holds.
Out of the six battleground states, Pennsylvania is the most important one with 19 electoral votes, followed by North Carolina with 16, Arizona with 11, Wisconsin with 10, and Nevada with 6. In other words, winning one or two of these states could make a difference in a close election.
Political analysts have tipped Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to be especially crucial for this year’s election, and both candidates are campaigning aggressively in both of these states.
How crucial these states might be for Harris and Trump cannot be understated, especially considering how close the margins have been in these battleground states in recent elections.
Pennsylvania, for instance, flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 by narrow margins, while Arizona, which used to be a Republican stronghold, went to Biden in 2020. North Carolina remains highly unpredictable.
