Out of 50 states, just seven are likely to decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 US elections.
With election day on the horizon, each candidate is looking to turn as many swing states in their favor as possible. As the candidates hone in on making a strong finish to their campaign, they will look to campaign more intensely in the swing states they feel are within their grasp.
The swing states
The seven states that likely hold the power to put either candidate in office are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Each swing state has a different key issue and they hold significant influence over the outcome of the election.
Arizona
The Grand Canyon state has a lot of influence, with 11 electoral votes. While Arizona was a lock for Republicans since the 1990s, it swung to the Democrats in 2020 when Joe Biden won by a very slim margin.
For 2024, Arizona has achieved swing state status, as no one knows quite where they will swing this cycle. Despite their unpredictability, the issues surrounding the state could indicate what side they will go with.
Arizona borders Mexico, making one of their main issues immigration. Trump has attacked Harris repeatedly on the issue, as she was put in charge by President Biden to ease the border crisis. During the September 10th debate, Trump said, “Millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails and mental institutions and insane asylums, and they’re coming in and taking jobs that are occupied by African Americans and Hispanics.”
Meanwhile, both sides have fought over the issue of abortion in the state. Republicans failed to reinstate a total abortion ban, and tensions in the state have been more intense since Roe V. Wade was overturned in the Supreme Court.
Georgia
This swing state was another one that Joe Biden narrowly won in the 2020 elections. Biden was the first Democratic candidate to win in the state since 1992.
The state was at the center of an election interference scandal, which brought four criminal court cases against Trump. He was convicted in one case, and the others are still proceeding.
Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes could prove crucial for either candidate in a tight race, and they know it. Harris and Walz have been pushing to win the state, as they have been focusing on setting up plenty of campaign events throughout the state.
Michigan
With 15 electoral college votes, the Great Lakes state would be a valuable asset in helping either candidate win. Michigan has picked the winning candidate during the last two election cycles.
While Biden won the state in 2020 by a comfortable margin, Harris could have a difficult time winning the state, as the people have been loud in their anger over the Biden administration’s support of Israel.
Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab-Americans in the US, and their support for Harris could be in jeopardy thanks to President Biden.
Both candidates have been staunch on the issue, which could lean voters in their favor. Harris has made it clear she wants a cease-fire to happen quickly, and Trump has said that if he were to be elected, he would “get it over with fast.”
Nevada
While Nevada has long been notoriously Democratic, there are signs the tides might shift red. The Silver State is worth just six electoral college votes, but they can still hold influence in a neck and neck race.
When President Biden was still a candidate, Trump beat him in the state polls by a significant margin. However, according to the latest polls of 538, since Harris took over as the Democratic candidate, the state’s leanings have become more balanced.
The swing state is currently experiencing high costs of living and inflation, which could lead voters to push for Trump. While Nevada’s issues aren’t Harris’ strong suit, she has a better chance of winning the state than Biden did.
North Carolina
The Tar Heel State was in a similar spot to Nevada before Harris became the Democratic candidate. The polls favored Trump in a race against Biden but have narrowed since she took the ticket.
As a state that holds 16 electoral college votes, it is a crucial swing state to win for either candidate. Trump sees the state as one of the most vital for his presidency hopes, as he chose to host his first outdoor rally there in July, where he said, “This state is a very, very big state to win.”
The state governor is a Democrat, and the people’s partiality to either side gives Democrats and Republicans equal hope of pulling out the big win.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State will be a focal point for the 2024 elections, as it holds the most electoral college votes of any swing state at 19 votes. Pennsylvania’s influence has been made clear by how intensely both candidates campaign in the state.
While the state was pivotal in President Biden’s win, this is the state where the first Trump assassination attempt took place. The condemnable fact that the former President was nearly killed could be influential in moving voters’ sympathies toward Trump.
Pennsylvania is one of the swing states suffering severely from inflation and a skyrocketing cost of living. Harris is the Vice President in the Biden administration, so this could significantly damage her chances of winning the state.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a serious battleground state. In the past two election cycles, the winning candidate has won by incredibly narrow margins. The Badger State is worth ten votes, which, while not the most of the swing states, is still influential.
Both candidates have been fighting third-party candidates in the area, as they hold more influence in Wisconsin than in other states around the US. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was unable to get his name off the state ballot after backing out of the election race to endorse Trump’s candidacy. Likewise, Democrats have been trying to remove Green Party candidate Jill Stein from the state ballot.
Both candidates see the swing state as significant. Trump has said that if he wins the state, he “wins the whole thing.” Harris was rallying there when she was nominated as the new Democratic candidate after Biden dropped out.
