It had been more than a year since Earth had set a monthly global temperature, but this changed in July, when we experienced our two warmest days ever. Now, Copernicus scientists are concerned 2024 will become the warmest year ever recorded on Earth.
Scientists from Copernicus, the EU’s Climate Change Service, expected global average temperatures to drop slightly due to the El Niño and La Niña phenomenon.
So far, however, this has not been the case. Instead, long-term global average temperatures keep going up.
Copernicus: Earth to record warmest known year
In a statement, Copernicus’ Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said, “The overall context hasn’t changed, our climate continues to warm.”
According to Burgess, climate change began “well before” 2023, and its effects will continue to amplify unless gas emissions are net zero. These effects were evident in the two record-breaking days Earth experienced in July.
The two days that raised red flags for Copernicus were July 22nd and July 23rd, which was when global average temperature reached 17.16 and 17.15 degrees Celsius, respectively. It is due to these two days scientists are so concerned and expect 2024 to likely be the warmest year on record thus far.
Throughout July 2024, the global average temperature ranked .27 degrees Celsius higher than the same period in 2023. This is extremely unusual for Copernicus’s ERA5 data set.
The last time Earth recorded a cooler year was in 1976
It has been more than 40 years since Earth recorded a year that was cooler than average, and it is unlikely this will change. This was evident in the average surface air temperature of July 2024. In July, the metric was recorded at 16.91 degrees Celsius.
To provide context for the current climate threat, scientists use the period between 1850 and 1900, known as the designated pre-industrial reference period.
July 2024 was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial reference period. The Paris Agreement’s goal is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees more than the pre-industrial reference period.
It is important to note, however, that exceeding the 1.5-degree goal is not currently seen as a failure of the Paris Agreement. This is because the specific agreement looks at the climate average across various decades.
Sea surface temperatures are concerning
Earth’s record-breaking warmth is felt not only on the surface. Global daily sea surface temperatures remain above average.
In the latitudes of 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, the average sea surface temperatures were the second highest ever recorded.
Copernicus claims this marks the end of 15 months of record-breaking sea surface temperatures.
This is not great news for the world’s coral reefs and the Antarctic Ocean. Antarctic sea ice coverage plummeted to its second-lowest-ever recorded at only 11 percent in July.
